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Charles Foreman

Hawks Are Done... For Now?

The last two years, the Atlanta Hawks have made some serious noise.  Last year, after aquiring Mike Bibby from the Kings for basically nothing, they made the playoffs as the eighth seed.  Besides the Warriors upsetting the Mavericks, never has an eight seed been so much fun and so dangerous.  Making the playoffs by itself was a success, but taking the eventual NBA Champion Celtics to seven games was huge.  The next year, they lost Josh Childress to overseas, but they still came back even better.  The Hawks claimed the fourth seed and beat the Heat in the first round.  Then, like the Pistons, got swept by the Cavs.

This is truly a team on the rise, well, maybe until now.  The Hawks have a lot of question marks.  First, one most note that the Hawks, although talented, were never a deep team, basically going with a eight man rotation all year long.  Those eight men became seven men when Marvin Williams went out with a wrist injury in the playoffs.  With that said, losing any pieces would be extremely hurtful at this point in time.  This is where the biggest concern is.

The Hawks are looking at a few free agents on the team as of this moment.  The biggest is Mike Bibby.  He is the man that is credited for taking a solid young team and making them a solid playoff team.  He is also coming off of a huge contract, but not getting any younger.  If Mike Bibby is willing to take a massive pay cut, he was making 14.98M last year, the Hawks would love him back.  But he is just one piece of this big puzzle.  The second piece is the restricted free agency of forward Marvin Williams.  Although Hawks fans will never forget that he was taken before Chris Paul and Deron Williams, he still has been solid these last two years and has progressed every year in the league.  He will get interest from several teams this off-season.  Will the Hawks have the cap room to bring him back?  Smaller pieces, but still important, is the two big bench players that Hawks had.  Flip Murray and Zaza Pachulia are both free agents this summer as well.  With out them, the team has no bench outside of Maurice Evans.  Lastly in the free agent side, is Josh Childress.  The Hawks still have his rights in restricted free agency and would still love him back.  He fit perfectly into what they did in Atlanta on defense and they need another solid player.

Bringing back all four pending free agents will not be easy for a few reasons.  One, as much discussed when talking about the economy and the NBA, the salary cap will most likely decrease next year.  This doesn't bode well for a team that was twenty million over it in the first place.  Second, if they are bringing Childress back, that creates even less space.  Third, the Hawks do have a 1st Round Pick that they will probably keep.  That pick will cost the Hawks another million plus.  Lastly, but most importantly, is Al Horford Joe Johnson.  The Hawks love Al Horford and Joe Johnson, as they should.  But Al is entering his third year in the NBA, meaning that in two years, the man is going to get paid.  Johnson has two years left on his deal.  If they are going to keep their best player in Johnson, he will continue to command his fifteen plus million each year.  Last year they signed Josh Smith to a nice contract worth ten million a year.  Assuming that they keep and hold onto Al Horford, they are looking at another ten to thirteen million a year.  This comes out to Johnson, Horford, and Smith taking up 35-38 million a year.  This is a lot of money when you also hope to keep Williams, Bibby, and Childress.

The Hawks have been a good team for two years now and outside of Bibby, their core is very young.  They will only continue to grow as players.  The Hawks future looks bright... if they can hold onto it.

Glen "Big Baby" Davis Hits Huge Shot

As everyone knows, Glen Davis hit the game winning shot last night against the Orlando Magic to tie the series at two a piece. What no one knows yet, is how these playoffs, where Davis has been so big, is affecting his summer pay day.

As a second round pick almost two years ago, Davis signed a contract for two years. At the end of the two years, he is a unrestricted free agent. Some times these second round picks benefit from being selected late as they get there big payday quicker. Just ask Gilbert Arenas when he bolted the Warriors.

Before we look at how Davis has stepped up, lets look at how this is possible. Every player needs an opportunity. There is very little chance to prove ones worth without a opportunity to do so. This generally happens in one of two ways. One is the ever so common "change of scenery" that everyone talks about. People always say so and so needs a change of scenery. This often proves true. Usually different coaches, different teammates, and a different system leads to a different role that may prove a players worth. The second opportunity that comes a long is an injury. Starter A is out for so many games, so Backup Player fills in and does fantastic.

In the case of Davis, he is getting a huge opportunity. Not only did Kevin Garnett get hurt, but so did Leon Powe in the first series. This leaves a huge hole for Davis to fill. The other option would be Mikki Moore who has been horrible all year on both the Kings and the Celtics. With that said, Davis is playing great basketball. Lets take a look at the numbers:

34.7 Minutes a game, 16.4 Points, 6.0 Rebounds, and 49.3% Field Goal Percentage.

For a second year player, who was always considered too short and bulky, he is doing great stuff. Davis has never been looked at as a starting power forward in the NBA and this still may be true. However, I don't think teams will shy away from Davis this summer when looking to upgrade the PF spot. Davis isn't an elite rebounder or shot blocker, but he plays solid position defense and, as some people may have noticed last night, can space the floor with a mid range game. Davis is a great fit to a center who plays with his back to the basket.

Typically playoffs reward role players who stand out. Mark Madsen got a big contract after a good playoffs. Tyronn Lue as well. Both Laker players who had a good series or two and that led to an overpay the next summer by a new team. But in the end, whether these playoffs reward Davis with a great payday or not, Davis has assured that he is a player in the NBA that will be around for time to come.

2006 NBA Draft: Extensions Coming?

The 2006 NBA Draft has some important players in todays NBA.  Every year, players that are entering the final year of their rookie contract have the option of signing on extension.  Before we talk about the players that are going to be players in the summer for extensions, lets check out who was drafted in the first round in the 2006 NBA Draft:

1. Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani

2. Blazers - LaMarcus Aldridge

3. Lakers - Adam Morrison

4. Bull - Tyrus Thomas

5. Kings - Sheldon Williams

6. Blazers - Brandon Roy

7. T-Wolves - Randy Foye

8. Grizzles - Rudy Gay

9. Celtics - Patrick O'Bryant

10. Knicks - Mouhamed Sene

11. Magic - J.J. Redick

12. Hornets - Hilton Armstrong

13. Thunder - Thebo Sefolosha

14. Jazz - Ronnie Brewer

15. Bulls - Cedric Simmons

16. 76ers - Rodney Carney

17. Mavericks - Swane Williams

18. Wizards - Oleksiy Pecherov

19. Raptors - Quincy Douby

20. Nuggets - Renaldo Balkman

21. Celtics - Rajon Rondo

22. Warriors - Marcus Williams

23. Nets - Josh Boone

24. Rockets - Kyle Lowry

25. Lakers - Shannon Brown

26. Laker - Jordan Farmer

27. Blazers - Sergio Rodriguez

28. Nets - Maurice Ager

29. Clippers - Mardy Collins

30. Blazers - Joel Freeland

The 2006 NBA Draft was a fairly solid draft with lots of guys that will get good looks at an extension this summer.  But first, these are the players not available for an extension:  Patrick O'Byrant, Saer Sene, Cedric Simmons, Shawne Williams, Quincy Douby, Marcus Williams, Shannon Brown, and Joel Freeland.  These guys are on their second contract or in the case of Freeland, never made it to the NBA.

You also have "busts" in the 2006 NBA Draft, like any other draft.  Morrison being the biggest name along with Williams, Redick, and Armstrong rounding out the rest of the lottery of busts.

With all that said, there are some very good players that I expect to get locked up from the 2006 NBA Draft.  The Blazers have their hands full with two of these players in Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldride.  The Celtics stole away Rajon Rondo from the Suns for three million in cash.  He is expected to ink and extensions this summer.  Bargnani and Thomas haven't been the franchise player both teams were hoping for at picks one and four, but both have been very productive at times.  I would expect serious negotiations at the least.

Lastly, the role players of the group.  None of these guys are stars, but they are all have a positive effect on their team.  Brewer has been the starter for a few years and is always in the elite group on the defensive end.  Sefolsha was aquired by the Thunder for a 1st Round pick, so one can only bet that they would be looking to tie him up for several more years.  Boone has been solid in the youth movement in New Jersey when he has been healthy.  Lowry was just acquired by the Rockets in a move that sent out starting point guard Alston.  He looks to be the back up they want.  Farmer has had a poor year after missing a month of duty, but he is someone that may extended as well.

All said and done, the 2006 NBA Draft is a good one with a fair amount of players looking for the much desired second contract.  Three of those players in Roy, Aldridge and Rando may even be looking at a max dollar contract.  It is going to be an exciting summer for these kids.

Rookie of the Year Thoughts

Derrick Rose won the Rookie of the Year award, which probably came as no surprise to many of you. He was the number one overall pick, was the best player on a playoff team, had some gaudy stats, and in the end he deserved to win. However, this years race is closer then what the voters and fans really think. Before we go on, take a look at the official votes that came in. It was a pretty dominate win by Rose, but should it have been?


Here is a break down of the Rookie of the Year voting, courtesy of NBA.com:


2008-09 T-MOBILE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTING

Player (Team)	Votes: 1st place	2nd place	3rd place	Total
Derrick Rose (Bulls)	111	5	4	574
O.J. Mayo (Grizzlies)	5	64	29	246
Brook Lopez (Nets)	2	28	33	127
Russell Westbrook (Thunder)	2	13	24	73
Eric Gordon (Clippers)	-	4	10	22
Kevin Love (Timberwolves)	-	2	10	16
Michael Beasley (Heat)	-	2	1	7
Marc Gasol (Grizzlies)	-	1	1	4
Robin Lopez (Suns)	-	1	-	3
Rudy Fernandez (Trail Blazers)	-	-	3	3
Mario Chalmers (Heat)	-	-	2	2
Courtney Lee (Magic)	-	-	2	2
Nicolas Batum (Trail Blazers)	-	-	1	1

As you can see, Rose took down 111 first place votes out of 120. That made it seem like a true run away. But like I said, the stats go a little deeper.


Now before I show you the stats, take in mind a few things. First, the ROY is different then the MVP award. Everyone always talks about how the MVP needs to be from a 50+ win team. If a player averages a triple double for the whole season, but only wins 22 games, voters would dismiss him as a MVP. However, the ROY has never been an award based on team success. The most recent example was Kevin Durant last year being on a team that ended up picking in the top 5. Not exactly great team success there. Second, all stats need to be looked at. Too often people just look at points per game, assists per game, and rebounds per game. There is a lot more to that story the just per game stats. Lastly, you need to get rid of the name of the player when picking. Too often people are consumed by so and so, even if they are an inferior player. Just because a player was taken at such and such pick, doesn't mean they are better.


With everything said, here is a good look at a few top candidates:


Player A: 13 PPG, .531 FG%, 8.1 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 1 APG in 30.5 MPG
Player B: 11.1 PPG, .469 FG%, 9.1 RPG, .6 BPG, 1 APG in 25.3 MPG
Player C: 16.1 PPG, .456 FG%, 2.6 RPG, 1 SPG, 2.38 APG in 34.3 MPG
Player D: 15.3 PPG, .398 FG%, 4.9 RPG, 1.34 SPG, 5.3 APG in 32.5 MPG
Player E: 18.5 PPG, .438 FG%, 3.8 RPG, 1.11 SPG, 3.2 APG in 38 MPG
Player F: 16.8 PPG, .475 FG%, 3.9 RPG, .81 SPG, 6.3 APG in 37 MPG


Just by looking at these stats, you can see a few things. First thing is that no one besides Player A really shot the ball all that well. Player F did the second best, but that was due to the fact that only 5.9% of his shots were beyond the 3 point arc. Not a lot for a guard.


The second thing that pops out to me is that the higher scorers played more. However, in 38 and 37 minutes a game, neither player E or F contributed much on the glass with less then four rebounds a piece. A good example of their rebounding would be Baron Davis, who is 34.6 MPG, pulled in 3.7 RPG. Nothing that shoots out at you.


Another interesting thing is how some players seem to be one dimensional and some help the team is a vast amount of ways. Players C and E don't seem to do much on the floor in 30+ minutes a game other then score. However, 44% and 46% for someone who has a lone job of scoring doesn't seem to be that great. Contrary to that, Player A is a great big body that is giving you 13 and 9 on 53% while adding almost 2 blocks a game. Player B is almost averaging a double double in only 25 MPG. Player D basically averaging 15, 5, and 5, although he isn't a very efficient scorers yet with his poor field goal percentage. Player F is scorer a lot and doing it well while dishing out over 6 assists a game.


When it comes down to it, I think those stats show that Player A, Player D, and Player F are the top three candidates. But lets take a closer look at their numbers once you make it per 48 minutes, instead of just per game:


Player A: 20.5 PPG, .531 FG%, 12.8 RPG, 2.9 BPG, 1.7 APG
Player D: 22.6 PPG, .398 FG%, 7.2 RPG, 2 SPG, 7.8 APG
Player F: 21.8 PPG, .475 FG%, 5.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 8.2 APG


Looking at this and it seems a lot closer as far as stats go. Player A looks like a dominating force in 48 minutes of play. 20 and 12 and 3 is not something you want to go against. All this while shooting 53% from the field. Player D is putting out almost 23, 7, and 8 along with 2 steals. He doesn't have the best shot selection as you can see by his FG%, but he is a force to reckon with. And finally a very solid 22, 5, and 8 with 1 steal. Not quite the stats of Player D, but a 8% increase of FG%.


I personally would be taking Player A first on my ballot, with Player D second, and Player F third. If you couldn't guess by now, that is Brook Lopez, Russell Westbrook, and Derrick Rose.


(Player B was Kevin Love, Player C was Ben Gordon, and Player E was O.J. Mayo. These six players rounded out the top six in votes.)


Some other things come in to mind that stats can't factor in. Lopez was ever consistent from start to end. Westbrook was a force on defense. And Rose showed a lot of poise as being the man on his team. Needless to say, no one was cheated with Rose winning, but this blogger personally feels it was a shame that people saw it as a landslide. It was also a shame that Mayo did so well. The guy put up points, but on a bad team, as the man, and he didn't contribute in too many other areas. Fourth would have been a perfect spot for him.


The future looks bright for all six players we mentioned today. It should be interesting to see what happens with Lopez after such a great rookie campaign. Usually point guards struggle in the first year, but Rose and Westbrook both showed some incredible promise. If Westbrook can increase his FG% by 5-8 points, look out NBA. Derrick Rose looks like a player that will mentioned in the ever so famous "who is the best player" debate in about 3-4 years. The future of the NBA looks bright.

Welcome to The Rookie Contract

Hello Everyone.  Welcome to The Rookie Contract.  In today's NBA world, the rookie contract is the most meaningful contract.  There are various reasons for this.  The biggest reason in this bloggers eyes is that by the end of the four year contract (four years for first round picks, assuming team options are picked up) players are generally considered a legitimate NBA player or at that point considered a bust.

If a player is considered a bust, then options are limited.  Most teams would rather focus on getting younger prospects then waste salary cap room and a roster space on a fifth year player who has yet come into his own in the NBA.  So at this point, most players are facing time in the NBDL, overseas, or a life outside of professional basketball.

If the player succeeds during his rookie contract, great things can happen.  Extensions can be given after the third year, player can sign during restricted free agency after his fourth year, or maybe pick up a qualifying offer to get unrestricted free agency after his fifth year.  Either way, if a player finds a role or a niche during his rookie contract, he will be making a career from then on and earning a much higher income.

This blog is going to focus on the players that are currently in their rookie contract.  These players are the future of the NBA.  The future superstars.  The future role models.  We will cover everything from stats, development, off the court issues, signings, trades, and much more.  We will also look into the draft and future players in the NBA.

I hope you enjoy the roller coaster that is about to get started.  Should be one hell of a ride.