Thursday, May 7, 2009

Rookie of the Year Thoughts

Derrick Rose won the Rookie of the Year award, which probably came as no surprise to many of you. He was the number one overall pick, was the best player on a playoff team, had some gaudy stats, and in the end he deserved to win. However, this years race is closer then what the voters and fans really think. Before we go on, take a look at the official votes that came in. It was a pretty dominate win by Rose, but should it have been?


Here is a break down of the Rookie of the Year voting, courtesy of NBA.com:


2008-09 T-MOBILE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD VOTING
Player (Team)Votes: 1st place2nd place3rd placeTotal
Derrick Rose (Bulls)11154574
O.J. Mayo (Grizzlies)56429246
Brook Lopez (Nets)22833127
Russell Westbrook (Thunder)2132473
Eric Gordon (Clippers)-41022
Kevin Love (Timberwolves)-21016
Michael Beasley (Heat)-217
Marc Gasol (Grizzlies)-114
Robin Lopez (Suns)-1-3
Rudy Fernandez (Trail Blazers)--33
Mario Chalmers (Heat)--22
Courtney Lee (Magic)--22
Nicolas Batum (Trail Blazers)--11



As you can see, Rose took down 111 first place votes out of 120. That made it seem like a true run away. But like I said, the stats go a little deeper.


Now before I show you the stats, take in mind a few things. First, the ROY is different then the MVP award. Everyone always talks about how the MVP needs to be from a 50+ win team. If a player averages a triple double for the whole season, but only wins 22 games, voters would dismiss him as a MVP. However, the ROY has never been an award based on team success. The most recent example was Kevin Durant last year being on a team that ended up picking in the top 5. Not exactly great team success there. Second, all stats need to be looked at. Too often people just look at points per game, assists per game, and rebounds per game. There is a lot more to that story the just per game stats. Lastly, you need to get rid of the name of the player when picking. Too often people are consumed by so and so, even if they are an inferior player. Just because a player was taken at such and such pick, doesn't mean they are better.


With everything said, here is a good look at a few top candidates:


Player A: 13 PPG, .531 FG%, 8.1 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 1 APG in 30.5 MPG
Player B: 11.1 PPG, .469 FG%, 9.1 RPG, .6 BPG, 1 APG in 25.3 MPG
Player C: 16.1 PPG, .456 FG%, 2.6 RPG, 1 SPG, 2.38 APG in 34.3 MPG
Player D: 15.3 PPG, .398 FG%, 4.9 RPG, 1.34 SPG, 5.3 APG in 32.5 MPG
Player E: 18.5 PPG, .438 FG%, 3.8 RPG, 1.11 SPG, 3.2 APG in 38 MPG
Player F: 16.8 PPG, .475 FG%, 3.9 RPG, .81 SPG, 6.3 APG in 37 MPG


Just by looking at these stats, you can see a few things. First thing is that no one besides Player A really shot the ball all that well. Player F did the second best, but that was due to the fact that only 5.9% of his shots were beyond the 3 point arc. Not a lot for a guard.


The second thing that pops out to me is that the higher scorers played more. However, in 38 and 37 minutes a game, neither player E or F contributed much on the glass with less then four rebounds a piece. A good example of their rebounding would be Baron Davis, who is 34.6 MPG, pulled in 3.7 RPG. Nothing that shoots out at you.


Another interesting thing is how some players seem to be one dimensional and some help the team is a vast amount of ways. Players C and E don't seem to do much on the floor in 30+ minutes a game other then score. However, 44% and 46% for someone who has a lone job of scoring doesn't seem to be that great. Contrary to that, Player A is a great big body that is giving you 13 and 9 on 53% while adding almost 2 blocks a game. Player B is almost averaging a double double in only 25 MPG. Player D basically averaging 15, 5, and 5, although he isn't a very efficient scorers yet with his poor field goal percentage. Player F is scorer a lot and doing it well while dishing out over 6 assists a game.


When it comes down to it, I think those stats show that Player A, Player D, and Player F are the top three candidates. But lets take a closer look at their numbers once you make it per 48 minutes, instead of just per game:


Player A: 20.5 PPG, .531 FG%, 12.8 RPG, 2.9 BPG, 1.7 APG
Player D: 22.6 PPG, .398 FG%, 7.2 RPG, 2 SPG, 7.8 APG
Player F: 21.8 PPG, .475 FG%, 5.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 8.2 APG


Looking at this and it seems a lot closer as far as stats go. Player A looks like a dominating force in 48 minutes of play. 20 and 12 and 3 is not something you want to go against. All this while shooting 53% from the field. Player D is putting out almost 23, 7, and 8 along with 2 steals. He doesn't have the best shot selection as you can see by his FG%, but he is a force to reckon with. And finally a very solid 22, 5, and 8 with 1 steal. Not quite the stats of Player D, but a 8% increase of FG%.


I personally would be taking Player A first on my ballot, with Player D second, and Player F third. If you couldn't guess by now, that is Brook Lopez, Russell Westbrook, and Derrick Rose.


(Player B was Kevin Love, Player C was Ben Gordon, and Player E was O.J. Mayo. These six players rounded out the top six in votes.)


Some other things come in to mind that stats can't factor in. Lopez was ever consistent from start to end. Westbrook was a force on defense. And Rose showed a lot of poise as being the man on his team. Needless to say, no one was cheated with Rose winning, but this blogger personally feels it was a shame that people saw it as a landslide. It was also a shame that Mayo did so well. The guy put up points, but on a bad team, as the man, and he didn't contribute in too many other areas. Fourth would have been a perfect spot for him.


The future looks bright for all six players we mentioned today. It should be interesting to see what happens with Lopez after such a great rookie campaign. Usually point guards struggle in the first year, but Rose and Westbrook both showed some incredible promise. If Westbrook can increase his FG% by 5-8 points, look out NBA. Derrick Rose looks like a player that will mentioned in the ever so famous "who is the best player" debate in about 3-4 years. The future of the NBA looks bright.

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